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We’ve been watching Canada for the past six months very closely. One of the main reasons is the fact that the Bank of Canada paused its rate hikes…
Peter Esho
One of the things I learnt in 2008 was the balance sheet never lies. The 2002-2007 accounting tricks were finally exposed in 2008. We’re finding…
Peter Esho
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates as expected by 25 basis points but has opened the door for a pause should data over the next month…
Peter Esho
We tend to study both Australia and Canada collectively because they have similar economic fundamentals and leverage to interest rate sensitivities…
Peter Esho

February 2023

One of the countries we look at closely is Canada given the diversified nature of its economic base and also its exposure to commodities, particularly…
Peter Esho
The good news is that US inflation is under control. The bad news…it isn’t falling quick enough to temper rate rise expectations. As we wrote last week…
Peter Esho
The RBA increased rates by 25 basis points as expected and has left the door open for more hikes which is understandable given the higher than expected…
Peter Esho

January 2023

Aussie retail sales slumped by 3.9% in December. To put this into perspective, sales rose by 1.7% in November and the market was expecting sales to only…
Peter Esho
The Aussie inflation numbers are worse than expected, with the trimmed mean rising 1.7% compared to the previous quarter. This compares with market…
Peter Esho

December 2022

We think the RBA will move by 25bpts today but perhaps more importantly, it will change some of the wording around future rate rises. There could be one…
Peter Esho

November 2022

The October Aussie monthly CPI trimmed mean is the number we pay the most attention to, particularly compared to the prior corresponding period. It was…
Peter Esho
The 0.2% decline in retail sales is too early to point to as an indicator that things are slowing down. The fall was worse than expected but is just one…
Peter Esho
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